Annan warned about the bio-threat yesterday, as reported by today's NY Times: “As biological research expands, and technologies become increasingly accessible, this potential for accidental or intentional harm grows exponentially,” he said, according to the text of his speech. “Even novices working in small laboratories will be able to carry out gene manipulation.”
In May, Mr. Annan called for a global forum on biological terrorism, saying current treaties were too weak and governmental and commercial initiatives too scattered. I think the term "exponential" is key here in that the biotech revolution is wholly dependent upon the infotech revolution, which has followed Moore's law by doubling processor speed every two years or less. The power to analyze biological data has grown at the same exponential rate as processor speed. Related advances in our ability to quickly and cheaply manipulate at a physical level individual genes and sequences of genes give us the power to make all this analysis fruitful.
The Times continued by noting the lack of an effective inspection regime for bioweapons and dangerous types of civilian biotech: Mr. Annan likened the current consensus-building phase over rules for life sciences to the debate over nuclear technology in the 1950s that preceded the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.“We lack an international system of safeguards to manage those risks,” he said. Annan makes a fairly optimistic analogy here; unfortunately it is not justified by reality. None of the major powers are yet willing submit to the necessary infringements upon their sovereignty that would be necessary to form an effective control mechanism. The infringements, to be effective, would have to be far, far more intrusive than was the case for nuclear inspection regimes. But, hopefully Mr. Annan will make this issue a priority for the remainder of his tenure. That way its international profile will be raised, perhaps increasing the likelihood of substantive progress in the post-Bush world.
In May, Mr. Annan called for a global forum on biological terrorism, saying current treaties were too weak and governmental and commercial initiatives too scattered. I think the term "exponential" is key here in that the biotech revolution is wholly dependent upon the infotech revolution, which has followed Moore's law by doubling processor speed every two years or less. The power to analyze biological data has grown at the same exponential rate as processor speed. Related advances in our ability to quickly and cheaply manipulate at a physical level individual genes and sequences of genes give us the power to make all this analysis fruitful.
The Times continued by noting the lack of an effective inspection regime for bioweapons and dangerous types of civilian biotech: Mr. Annan likened the current consensus-building phase over rules for life sciences to the debate over nuclear technology in the 1950s that preceded the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.“We lack an international system of safeguards to manage those risks,” he said. Annan makes a fairly optimistic analogy here; unfortunately it is not justified by reality. None of the major powers are yet willing submit to the necessary infringements upon their sovereignty that would be necessary to form an effective control mechanism. The infringements, to be effective, would have to be far, far more intrusive than was the case for nuclear inspection regimes. But, hopefully Mr. Annan will make this issue a priority for the remainder of his tenure. That way its international profile will be raised, perhaps increasing the likelihood of substantive progress in the post-Bush world.
posted by Craken | 12:21 AM
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